class: inverse, center, middle background-image: url(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrNFqypUcAAJVM0.jpg) backgorund-size: contain # .huge[.yellow[**Foreign Policy Consequences of Democratic Backsliding**] ] ## .orange[**The Comfort Women Agreement and <br> the Authoritarian Origin of South Korea-Japan Disputes]** # **.bluey[Byunghwan 'Ben' Son**] <br> .green[George Mason University] --- class: inverse background-image: url(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%253A%252F%252Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%252Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%252Fimages%252F2%252F6%252F3%252F8%252F19048362-1-eng-GB%252F%25E3%2580%258C%25E5%25A8%2581%25E5%259A%2587%25E9%25A3%259B%25E8%25A1%258C%25E3%2580%258D%25E3%2581%25AE%25E7%2594%25BB%25E5%2583%258F%25E5%2585%25AC%25E9%2596%258B20190124211900_Data.jpg?width=700&fit=cover&gravity=faces&dpr=2&quality=medium&source=nar-cms) background-size: contain # .Large[**Does Democratic Backsliding have any .orange[Foreign Policy] Consequences?**] -- ## <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 640 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:red;position:relative;"><path d="M544 224l-128-16-48-16h-24L227.158 44h39.509C278.333 44 288 41.375 288 38s-9.667-6-21.333-6H152v12h16v164h-48l-66.667-80H18.667L8 138.667V208h8v16h48v2.666l-64 8v42.667l64 8V288H16v16H8v69.333L18.667 384h34.667L120 304h48v164h-16v12h114.667c11.667 0 21.333-2.625 21.333-6s-9.667-6-21.333-6h-39.509L344 320h24l48-16 128-16c96-21.333 96-26.583 96-32 0-5.417 0-10.667-96-32z"/></svg> **Japanese War Planes 'threatening moves' (2019)** ## <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 640 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:yellow;position:relative;"><path d="M358.59,195.6,504.2,313.8a63.4,63.4,0,0,1,22.21,37.91H624a16.05,16.05,0,0,0,16-16V143.91A16,16,0,0,0,624,128H512L457.41,73.41A32,32,0,0,0,434.8,64H348.91a32,32,0,0,0-21.61,8.41l-88.12,80.68-25.69-19.85L289.09,64H205.3a32,32,0,0,0-22.6,9.41l-20.34,20.3L45.47,3.38A16,16,0,0,0,23,6.19L3.38,31.46A16,16,0,0,0,6.19,53.91L594.54,508.63A16,16,0,0,0,617,505.82l19.64-25.27a16,16,0,0,0-2.81-22.45L303.4,202.72l32.69-29.92,27-24.7a16,16,0,0,1,21.61,23.61ZM16,128A16.05,16.05,0,0,0,0,144V335.91a16,16,0,0,0,16,16H146.3l90.5,81.89a64,64,0,0,0,90-9.3l.2-.2,17.91,15.5a37.16,37.16,0,0,0,52.29-5.39l8.8-10.82L23.56,128Z"/></svg> **Japanese Gov't 'export control' to S. Korea** -- ## <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:black;position:relative;"><path d="M127.1 146.5c1.3 7.7 8 13.5 16 13.5h16.5c9.8 0 17.6-8.5 16.3-18-3.8-28.2-16.4-54.2-36.6-74.7-14.4-14.7-23.6-33.3-26.4-53.5C111.8 5.9 105 0 96.8 0H80.4C70.6 0 63 8.5 64.1 18c3.9 31.9 18 61.3 40.6 84.4 12 12.2 19.7 27.5 22.4 44.1zm112 0c1.3 7.7 8 13.5 16 13.5h16.5c9.8 0 17.6-8.5 16.3-18-3.8-28.2-16.4-54.2-36.6-74.7-14.4-14.7-23.6-33.3-26.4-53.5C223.8 5.9 217 0 208.8 0h-16.4c-9.8 0-17.5 8.5-16.3 18 3.9 31.9 18 61.3 40.6 84.4 12 12.2 19.7 27.5 22.4 44.1zM400 192H32c-17.7 0-32 14.3-32 32v192c0 53 43 96 96 96h192c53 0 96-43 96-96h16c61.8 0 112-50.2 112-112s-50.2-112-112-112zm0 160h-16v-96h16c26.5 0 48 21.5 48 48s-21.5 48-48 48z"/></svg> Consensus: de facto retraction of the 2015 Agreement was the trigger --- background-image: url(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/TenderExcitableKomododragon.webp) class: inverse, right, bottom background-size: contain # .LARGE[**The tension was .red[always] there!**] --- background-image: url(https://github.com/textvulture/textvulture.github.io/blob/master/images/KJpositions.jpg?raw=true) background-position: right # .large[What's so .green[**special**] <br>about 2015 Agreement?] -- ### <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:orange;position:relative;"><path d="M512 0C460.22 3.56 96.44 38.2 71.01 287.61c-3.09 26.66-4.84 53.44-5.99 80.24l178.87-178.69c6.25-6.25 16.4-6.25 22.65 0s6.25 16.38 0 22.63L7.04 471.03c-9.38 9.37-9.38 24.57 0 33.94 9.38 9.37 24.59 9.37 33.98 0l57.13-57.07c42.09-.14 84.15-2.53 125.96-7.36 53.48-5.44 97.02-26.47 132.58-56.54H255.74l146.79-48.88c11.25-14.89 21.37-30.71 30.45-47.12h-81.14l106.54-53.21C500.29 132.86 510.19 26.26 512 0z"/></svg> 1965 Agreement: the beginning -- ### <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 576 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:green;position:relative;"><path d="M12.971 352h32.394C67.172 454.735 181.944 512 288 512c106.229 0 220.853-57.38 242.635-160h32.394c10.691 0 16.045-12.926 8.485-20.485l-67.029-67.029c-4.686-4.686-12.284-4.686-16.971 0l-67.029 67.029c-7.56 7.56-2.206 20.485 8.485 20.485h35.146c-20.29 54.317-84.963 86.588-144.117 94.015V256h52c6.627 0 12-5.373 12-12v-40c0-6.627-5.373-12-12-12h-52v-5.47c37.281-13.178 63.995-48.725 64-90.518C384.005 43.772 341.605.738 289.37.01 235.723-.739 192 42.525 192 96c0 41.798 26.716 77.35 64 90.53V192h-52c-6.627 0-12 5.373-12 12v40c0 6.627 5.373 12 12 12h52v190.015c-58.936-7.399-123.82-39.679-144.117-94.015h35.146c10.691 0 16.045-12.926 8.485-20.485l-67.029-67.029c-4.686-4.686-12.284-4.686-16.971 0L4.485 331.515C-3.074 339.074 2.28 352 12.971 352zM288 64c17.645 0 32 14.355 32 32s-14.355 32-32 32-32-14.355-32-32 14.355-32 32-32z"/></svg>1980s - 2010s: ambiguous equilibrium -- ### <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 448 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:red;position:relative;"><path d="M224 512c35.32 0 63.97-28.65 63.97-64H160.03c0 35.35 28.65 64 63.97 64zm215.39-149.71c-19.32-20.76-55.47-51.99-55.47-154.29 0-77.7-54.48-139.9-127.94-155.16V32c0-17.67-14.32-32-31.98-32s-31.98 14.33-31.98 32v20.84C118.56 68.1 64.08 130.3 64.08 208c0 102.3-36.15 133.53-55.47 154.29-6 6.45-8.66 14.16-8.61 21.71.11 16.4 12.98 32 32.1 32h383.8c19.12 0 32-15.6 32.1-32 .05-7.55-2.61-15.27-8.61-21.71z"/></svg> 2015 Agreement: .red[unusually] drastic turn -- .Large[<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:currentColor;position:relative;"><path d="M512 199.652c0 23.625-20.65 43.826-44.8 43.826h-99.851c16.34 17.048 18.346 49.766-6.299 70.944 14.288 22.829 2.147 53.017-16.45 62.315C353.574 425.878 322.654 448 272 448c-2.746 0-13.276-.203-16-.195-61.971.168-76.894-31.065-123.731-38.315C120.596 407.683 112 397.599 112 385.786V214.261l.002-.001c.011-18.366 10.607-35.889 28.464-43.845 28.886-12.994 95.413-49.038 107.534-77.323 7.797-18.194 21.384-29.084 40-29.092 34.222-.014 57.752 35.098 44.119 66.908-3.583 8.359-8.312 16.67-14.153 24.918H467.2c23.45 0 44.8 20.543 44.8 43.826zM96 200v192c0 13.255-10.745 24-24 24H24c-13.255 0-24-10.745-24-24V200c0-13.255 10.745-24 24-24h48c13.255 0 24 10.745 24 24zM68 368c0-11.046-8.954-20-20-20s-20 8.954-20 20 8.954 20 20 20 20-8.954 20-20z"/></svg> '*final and irreversable*'; ] <br> .Large[<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:currentColor;position:relative;"><path d="M512 199.652c0 23.625-20.65 43.826-44.8 43.826h-99.851c16.34 17.048 18.346 49.766-6.299 70.944 14.288 22.829 2.147 53.017-16.45 62.315C353.574 425.878 322.654 448 272 448c-2.746 0-13.276-.203-16-.195-61.971.168-76.894-31.065-123.731-38.315C120.596 407.683 112 397.599 112 385.786V214.261l.002-.001c.011-18.366 10.607-35.889 28.464-43.845 28.886-12.994 95.413-49.038 107.534-77.323 7.797-18.194 21.384-29.084 40-29.092 34.222-.014 57.752 35.098 44.119 66.908-3.583 8.359-8.312 16.67-14.153 24.918H467.2c23.45 0 44.8 20.543 44.8 43.826zM96 200v192c0 13.255-10.745 24-24 24H24c-13.255 0-24-10.745-24-24V200c0-13.255 10.745-24 24-24h48c13.255 0 24 10.745 24 24zM68 368c0-11.046-8.954-20-20-20s-20 8.954-20 20 8.954 20 20 20 20-8.954 20-20z"/></svg> .red[untenable] b/c democracy; ] <br> .Large[<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 640 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:currentColor;position:relative;"><path d="M143.25 220.81l-12.42 46.37c-3.01 11.25-3.63 22.89-2.41 34.39l-35.2 28.98c-6.57 5.41-16.31-.43-14.62-8.77l15.44-76.68c1.06-5.26-2.66-10.28-8-10.79l-77.86-7.55c-8.47-.82-11.23-11.83-4.14-16.54l65.15-43.3c4.46-2.97 5.38-9.15 1.98-13.29L21.46 93.22c-5.41-6.57.43-16.3 8.78-14.62l76.68 15.44c5.26 1.06 10.28-2.66 10.8-8l7.55-77.86c.82-8.48 11.83-11.23 16.55-4.14l43.3 65.14c2.97 4.46 9.15 5.38 13.29 1.98l60.4-49.71c6.57-5.41 16.3.43 14.62 8.77L262.1 86.38c-2.71 3.05-5.43 6.09-7.91 9.4l-32.15 42.97-10.71 14.32c-32.73 8.76-59.18 34.53-68.08 67.74zm494.57 132.51l-12.42 46.36c-3.13 11.68-9.38 21.61-17.55 29.36a66.876 66.876 0 0 1-8.76 7l-13.99 52.23c-1.14 4.27-3.1 8.1-5.65 11.38-7.67 9.84-20.74 14.68-33.54 11.25L515 502.62c-17.07-4.57-27.2-22.12-22.63-39.19l8.28-30.91-247.28-66.26-8.28 30.91c-4.57 17.07-22.12 27.2-39.19 22.63l-30.91-8.28c-12.8-3.43-21.7-14.16-23.42-26.51-.57-4.12-.35-8.42.79-12.68l13.99-52.23a66.62 66.62 0 0 1-4.09-10.45c-3.2-10.79-3.65-22.52-.52-34.2l12.42-46.37c5.31-19.8 19.36-34.83 36.89-42.21a64.336 64.336 0 0 1 18.49-4.72l18.13-24.23 32.15-42.97c3.45-4.61 7.19-8.9 11.2-12.84 8-7.89 17.03-14.44 26.74-19.51 4.86-2.54 9.89-4.71 15.05-6.49 10.33-3.58 21.19-5.63 32.24-6.04 11.05-.41 22.31.82 33.43 3.8l122.68 32.87c11.12 2.98 21.48 7.54 30.85 13.43a111.11 111.11 0 0 1 34.69 34.5c8.82 13.88 14.64 29.84 16.68 46.99l6.36 53.29 3.59 30.05a64.49 64.49 0 0 1 22.74 29.93c4.39 11.88 5.29 25.19 1.75 38.39zM255.58 234.34c-18.55-4.97-34.21 4.04-39.17 22.53-4.96 18.49 4.11 34.12 22.65 39.09 18.55 4.97 45.54 15.51 50.49-2.98 4.96-18.49-15.43-53.67-33.97-58.64zm290.61 28.17l-6.36-53.29c-.58-4.87-1.89-9.53-3.82-13.86-5.8-12.99-17.2-23.01-31.42-26.82l-122.68-32.87a48.008 48.008 0 0 0-50.86 17.61l-32.15 42.97 172 46.08 75.29 20.18zm18.49 54.65c-18.55-4.97-53.8 15.31-58.75 33.79-4.95 18.49 23.69 22.86 42.24 27.83 18.55 4.97 34.21-4.04 39.17-22.53 4.95-18.48-4.11-34.12-22.66-39.09z"/></svg> setting up on a collision course] -- # How was it .violet[possible]? --- # Democratic Backsliding In South Korea (2008-2017) ![](agreement2015_slide_files/figure-html/gr1-1.png)<!-- --> --- # Backsliding in terms of vertical and horizontal accountability .center[ ![](https://github.com/textvulture/textvulture.github.io/blob/master/images/backsliding_concept.jpg?raw=true) ] --- # Declines in Vertical and Horizontal Accountability in S. Korea ![](agreement2015_slide_files/figure-html/gr2-1.png)<!-- --> --- # .center[**Before the 2015 Agreement**] .pull-left[ .content-box-blue[ ## Vertical Accountability ### - lack of communication ### - disinformation campaign (NIS) ### - public opinions didn't matter ] ] -- .pull-right[ .content-box-yellow[ ## Horizontal Accountability ### - interference with the courts ### - lack of formal consultation ### - prevalent nepotism & corruption ] ] -- .content-box-red[ ## <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 640 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:currentColor;position:relative;"><path d="M610.5 373.3c2.6-14.1 2.6-28.5 0-42.6l25.8-14.9c3-1.7 4.3-5.2 3.3-8.5-6.7-21.6-18.2-41.2-33.2-57.4-2.3-2.5-6-3.1-9-1.4l-25.8 14.9c-10.9-9.3-23.4-16.5-36.9-21.3v-29.8c0-3.4-2.4-6.4-5.7-7.1-22.3-5-45-4.8-66.2 0-3.3.7-5.7 3.7-5.7 7.1v29.8c-13.5 4.8-26 12-36.9 21.3l-25.8-14.9c-2.9-1.7-6.7-1.1-9 1.4-15 16.2-26.5 35.8-33.2 57.4-1 3.3.4 6.8 3.3 8.5l25.8 14.9c-2.6 14.1-2.6 28.5 0 42.6l-25.8 14.9c-3 1.7-4.3 5.2-3.3 8.5 6.7 21.6 18.2 41.1 33.2 57.4 2.3 2.5 6 3.1 9 1.4l25.8-14.9c10.9 9.3 23.4 16.5 36.9 21.3v29.8c0 3.4 2.4 6.4 5.7 7.1 22.3 5 45 4.8 66.2 0 3.3-.7 5.7-3.7 5.7-7.1v-29.8c13.5-4.8 26-12 36.9-21.3l25.8 14.9c2.9 1.7 6.7 1.1 9-1.4 15-16.2 26.5-35.8 33.2-57.4 1-3.3-.4-6.8-3.3-8.5l-25.8-14.9zM496 400.5c-26.8 0-48.5-21.8-48.5-48.5s21.8-48.5 48.5-48.5 48.5 21.8 48.5 48.5-21.7 48.5-48.5 48.5zM224 256c70.7 0 128-57.3 128-128S294.7 0 224 0 96 57.3 96 128s57.3 128 128 128zm201.2 226.5c-2.3-1.2-4.6-2.6-6.8-3.9l-7.9 4.6c-6 3.4-12.8 5.3-19.6 5.3-10.9 0-21.4-4.6-28.9-12.6-18.3-19.8-32.3-43.9-40.2-69.6-5.5-17.7 1.9-36.4 17.9-45.7l7.9-4.6c-.1-2.6-.1-5.2 0-7.8l-7.9-4.6c-16-9.2-23.4-28-17.9-45.7.9-2.9 2.2-5.8 3.2-8.7-3.8-.3-7.5-1.2-11.4-1.2h-16.7c-22.2 10.2-46.9 16-72.9 16s-50.6-5.8-72.9-16h-16.7C60.2 288 0 348.2 0 422.4V464c0 26.5 21.5 48 48 48h352c10.1 0 19.5-3.2 27.2-8.5-1.2-3.8-2-7.7-2-11.8v-9.2z"/></svg> .red[Personalist] Regime: weak party; comeback of the old ways ] --- class: inverse, middle background-image: url(https://cdn.clien.net/web/api/file/F01/12683802/53fe2fc9ff82e.jpg?w=230&h=150) background-size: contain background-position: right background-color: black # .huge[**Conclusion**] ## <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 496 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:currentColor;position:relative;"><path d="M336.5 160C322 70.7 287.8 8 248 8s-74 62.7-88.5 152h177zM152 256c0 22.2 1.2 43.5 3.3 64h185.3c2.1-20.5 3.3-41.8 3.3-64s-1.2-43.5-3.3-64H155.3c-2.1 20.5-3.3 41.8-3.3 64zm324.7-96c-28.6-67.9-86.5-120.4-158-141.6 24.4 33.8 41.2 84.7 50 141.6h108zM177.2 18.4C105.8 39.6 47.8 92.1 19.3 160h108c8.7-56.9 25.5-107.8 49.9-141.6zM487.4 192H372.7c2.1 21 3.3 42.5 3.3 64s-1.2 43-3.3 64h114.6c5.5-20.5 8.6-41.8 8.6-64s-3.1-43.5-8.5-64zM120 256c0-21.5 1.2-43 3.3-64H8.6C3.2 212.5 0 233.8 0 256s3.2 43.5 8.6 64h114.6c-2-21-3.2-42.5-3.2-64zm39.5 96c14.5 89.3 48.7 152 88.5 152s74-62.7 88.5-152h-177zm159.3 141.6c71.4-21.2 129.4-73.7 158-141.6h-108c-8.8 56.9-25.6 107.8-50 141.6zM19.3 352c28.6 67.9 86.5 120.4 158 141.6-24.4-33.8-41.2-84.7-50-141.6h-108z"/></svg> Backsliding has foreign policy consequences -- ## <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 384 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:orange;position:relative;"><path d="M255.98 160V16c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16h-32c-8.84 0-16 7.16-16 16v146.93c5.02-1.78 10.34-2.93 15.97-2.93h48.03zm128 95.99c-.01-35.34-28.66-63.99-63.99-63.99H207.85c-8.78 0-15.9 7.07-15.9 15.85v.56c0 26.27 21.3 47.59 47.57 47.59h35.26c9.68 0 13.2 3.58 13.2 8v16.2c0 4.29-3.59 7.78-7.88 8-44.52 2.28-64.16 24.71-96.05 72.55l-6.31 9.47a7.994 7.994 0 0 1-11.09 2.22l-13.31-8.88a7.994 7.994 0 0 1-2.22-11.09l6.31-9.47c15.73-23.6 30.2-43.26 47.31-58.08-17.27-5.51-31.4-18.12-38.87-34.45-6.59 3.41-13.96 5.52-21.87 5.52h-32c-12.34 0-23.49-4.81-32-12.48C71.48 251.19 60.33 256 48 256H16c-5.64 0-10.97-1.15-16-2.95v77.93c0 33.95 13.48 66.5 37.49 90.51L63.99 448v64h255.98v-63.96l35.91-35.92A96.035 96.035 0 0 0 384 344.21l-.02-88.22zm-32.01-90.09V48c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16h-32c-8.84 0-16 7.16-16 16v112h32c11.28 0 21.94 2.31 32 5.9zM16 224h32c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16V80c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16H16C7.16 64 0 71.16 0 80v128c0 8.84 7.16 16 16 16zm95.99 0h32c8.84 0 16-7.16 16-16V48c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16h-32c-8.84 0-16 7.16-16 16v160c0 8.84 7.16 16 16 16z"/></svg> Accountability <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 320 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:yellow;position:relative;"><path d="M143 256.3L7 120.3c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9l22.6-22.6c9.4-9.4 24.6-9.4 33.9 0l96.4 96.4 96.4-96.4c9.4-9.4 24.6-9.4 33.9 0L313 86.3c9.4 9.4 9.4 24.6 0 33.9l-136 136c-9.4 9.5-24.6 9.5-34 .1zm34 192l136-136c9.4-9.4 9.4-24.6 0-33.9l-22.6-22.6c-9.4-9.4-24.6-9.4-33.9 0L160 352.1l-96.4-96.4c-9.4-9.4-24.6-9.4-33.9 0L7 278.3c-9.4 9.4-9.4 24.6 0 33.9l136 136c9.4 9.5 24.6 9.5 34 .1z"/></svg> lead to expansion of win-set: <br> .orange[Untenable], if democracy resumes -- ## <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512" class="rfa" style="height:0.75em;fill:violet;position:relative;"><path d="M504 255.531c.253 136.64-111.18 248.372-247.82 248.468-59.015.042-113.223-20.53-155.822-54.911-11.077-8.94-11.905-25.541-1.839-35.607l11.267-11.267c8.609-8.609 22.353-9.551 31.891-1.984C173.062 425.135 212.781 440 256 440c101.705 0 184-82.311 184-184 0-101.705-82.311-184-184-184-48.814 0-93.149 18.969-126.068 49.932l50.754 50.754c10.08 10.08 2.941 27.314-11.313 27.314H24c-8.837 0-16-7.163-16-16V38.627c0-14.254 17.234-21.393 27.314-11.314l49.372 49.372C129.209 34.136 189.552 8 256 8c136.81 0 247.747 110.78 248 247.531zm-180.912 78.784l9.823-12.63c8.138-10.463 6.253-25.542-4.21-33.679L288 256.349V152c0-13.255-10.745-24-24-24h-16c-13.255 0-24 10.745-24 24v135.651l65.409 50.874c10.463 8.137 25.541 6.253 33.679-4.21z"/></svg> Historical .violet[contexts] often unappreciated