An unequivocal rebuke of the attempted coup, even in a conservative stronghold

South Korean Presidential Election 2025

After 6 months of turmoil following an attempted coup, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party is poised to clinch victory in South Korea’s 21st presidential election. While many aspects of this election merit extensive discussion, one in particular stands out to me.

Lee made significant gains in the conservative strongholds of the Gyeongsang provinces—an unequivocal rebuke of Yoon and his coup attempt. The regional cleavage in South Korean politics is so deeply entrenched that people often joke a conservative party’s flag alone could win an election there. Traditionally, Democratic candidates have struggled in the region. In the past three presidential elections, they secured less than 25% in North Gyeongsang (Gyeongbuk) and less than 40% in South Gyeongsang (Gyeongnam). But according to exit polls conducted by South Korea’s three major broadcast networks, Lee appears to have broken through these barriers, significantly improving his performance.

Year	Gyeongbuk (%)	Gyeongnam (%)
2012	18.61	36.33
2016	21.73	36.73
2021	23.80	37.38
2025	28.20	43.40 (projection)

It is difficult to find any alternative explanation for this regional shift more compelling than the failed coup attempt. Though often portrayed as sympathetic to Yoon, voters in the Gyeongsang region have sent a clear and unprecedented message: they, too, reject what Yoon did and what he stood for.