Russia; Russia, North Korea, and China

Russia-NK, a told-you-so moment

“Russia and North Korea’s Defense Pact Is a Told-You-So Moment in Asia”

• the Cold War-era mutual defense agreement: “if one country found itself in a state of war, then the other would provide “military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay””

• “the meeting between the two authoritarian leaders, both desperate for outside support, provided a bit of an I-told-you-so moment for the United States and its Asian allies, who have been preparing in recent years for growing security challenges from North Korea as well as China, and sometimes have faced domestic political headwinds for doing so.”

• What seems obvious is that Seoul doesn’t have any leverage over North Korea, let alone Russia. Tokyo, on the other hand, has maintained a certain degree of cooperation with NK, or at least some possibilities of it. So there’s a nuanced difference between South Korea and Japan in their strategic position with regard to North Korea.

The Russia-NK treaty is a headache to China

“Russia and North Korea’s Defense Pact Is a New Headache for China”

• the pact between NK and Russia “[appears] to deepen the semblance of a trilateral axis between China, Russia and North Korea, which China has sought to avoid. “Beijing has very carefully stayed away from the optics of a China-Russia-North Korea axis,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “It wants to keep its options open.””

• “China has sought to distance itself from the new pact, with a spokesman at the Foreign Ministry on Thursday declining to comment.”

Russian Nuclear Reactors as a vehicle of influence

“How Russia is using nuclear power to win global influence”

• “Despite sanctions, Russian companies are building more than a third of the new reactors around the world, which is gaining Moscow new friends.”

  • “Sanctions have so far not hampered the nuclear energy sector, which can create long-lasting political ties and disrupt western efforts to isolate Putin’s regime.” Important to note, however, Russia already accounted for about half of all international nuclear power plant deals.

• Western governments try to curb this trend of dominance, but there’s a long-term commitment issue. “Nuclear plant construction takes about 10 years, with a reactor lifespan of 60 years for newer plants. Dismantling preparations, including removing radioactive parts, take another 10-20 years and require substantial funds.” So when countries host Russian reactors, quite a bit of commitment was there already.

• Rosatom, Russian nuclear reactor company, is instrumental for Russian government to court the political support from the global south.

• But, Russia treats the reactors as if owned by Russian companies and require the host government to only buy the electricity from the reactor.

• “State-owned Rosatom is able to offer up to 90 per cent financing for nuclear projects, with repayments spread over decades at minimal interest rates,” which is attractive to credit-poor developing countries.