job market; venture capital; exploding pagers; rate cut expectations

market
finance
Middle East
Author

Ben

Published

September 18, 2024

White collar nob market mismatch

“Blanked or rejected: is finding a job harder than ever?”

  • Numerous applications (more than 100) still don’t seem to lead to good results. The pandemic surge in labor demand is now gone, though unemployment rates are generally low.

    • “Now openings are only 12 per cent above pre-pandemic levels in the US and 8 per cent below in the UK.”
  • Interests rate hikes “curbed employers’ ability to invest in hiring.”

  • The problem, however, is that the employers are “still struggling to find quality candidates among the deluge.”

    • one reason is AI tailors CVs so good that most of them look good.

    • anxious applicants put in more applications (“spray and pray” approach), triggering a vicious cycle. Companies also cut back hiring budgets and recruiters have a hard time reviewing all applicants.

    • another area of mismatch is between the blue- and white-collar jobs. Demand for the former is much stronger than the latter.

Steve Cohen

“Steve Cohen to step back from trading at hedge fund Point72”

  • “Steve Cohen, the billionaire founder of US hedge fund Point72, is stepping back from trading to focus on running the firm he founded a decade ago.”

  • Point72 is unique, in that “[u]nlike a traditional hedge fund that might trade one or two strategies in one asset class, Point72 has hundreds of investment staff across 185 teams around the world, focusing on a variety of trading strategies in equities, macro and computer-driven trading.”

  • One reason seems to be that Point72 became too successful and large.

Exploding pagers

“Exploding pagers join long history of killer communications devices”

  • Hizbolla was hit by Israel, through explosion of pagers, a communication medium that they prefer for simplicity and intractability.

  • Israeli attack through communication devices is nothing new.

  • How exactly it was conducted this time is not entirely clear.

Wall Street is betting on a big cut.

“Wall Street Has Its Eye on a Big Rate Cut”

  • update (2:30pm): Fed cut the rates by .5 FT link

  • S&P500 and many other stock market indices surged in the expectation of a big interest rate cut (to be determined today) by Fed.

  • Lately, there’s been some changes in the expectation: “The gains have come with traders in futures markets indicating that they think a half-point cut — even if an unusually big move — is the most likely outcome on Wednesday. That’s a big shift in thinking from just a few weeks ago.”

    • But if a big cut is read by the market as a sign of a pending recession, the consequence would be dire.

      • hence the caution: “There are some signs of caution among investors. The gains in recent weeks have been led by real estate and utilities, with the former seen as a primary beneficiary of lower rates and the latter a more defensive bet as the economy slows. The technology stocks that led the market rally for so many years have slipped over the past month.”