class: inverse, top, center background-image: url(https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5497331ae4b0148a6141bd47/1529717706598-9KB3VOGO0G1BGOOXMJ3U/BLOG-podcast-populism-the-new-populism-1482659671-9641-005.jpg?format=1500w) background-size: 100% background-position: center background-color: black # .Large[**Autocratization and Populism in Asia**] <br> GLOA 400 --- class: inverse, center, middle background-color: #19194d # .huge[Why Do We Care?] -- # .Large[Because, .yellow[Political Globalization]] --- class: inverse, left, middle background-image: url(https://media.giphy.com/media/ZW44yxLZRDdNS/giphy.gif) background-size: 55% background-position: right -- # When people think about <br>.pink[political globalization], -- # they often think of a <br>.yellow[**World Government**]. --- class: inverse background-image: url(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff07da747-42f8-4bb6-a36a-41fbc3b5803f_228x276.gif) background-size: contain background-position: right background-color: black # Actually, .red[not] entirely crazy. <br> Political globalization entails: -- ## - importance of .green[institutions] ## - homogenization of the .red[form] of poltics -- # These conditions then .Green[further] <br>accelerate political globalization. -- ### Crumbling democratic institutions <br><svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:purple;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M256 288H192c-17.67 0-32 14.31-32 32s14.33 32 32 32h64c17.67 0 32-14.31 32-32S273.7 288 256 288zM240 232V192H160C142.3 192 128 206.3 128 224s14.33 32 32 32h84.41C241.7 248.5 240 240.5 240 232zM240 104C240 101.3 240.5 98.66 240.8 96H32C14.33 96 0 110.3 0 128s14.33 32 32 32h208V104zM224 448h64c17.67 0 32-14.31 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32H224c-17.67 0-32 14.31-32 32S206.3 448 224 448zM352 416c0 11.72-3.381 22.55-8.879 32H376C451.1 448 512 387.1 512 312V223.3c0-28.76-9.107-56.79-26.02-80.06l-26.45-36.41C439.1 80 408.5 64 375.4 64H312c-22.09 0-40 17.91-40 40v128c0 22.09 17.91 39.1 39.1 39.1c28.73 0 40-26.72 40-42.28L352 159.1C352 151.2 359.2 144 368 144S384 151.2 384 159.1V232c0 37.87-29.35 68.59-66.51 71.45C318.9 308.8 320 314.2 320 320c0 13.28-4.047 25.6-10.97 35.83C333.1 364.6 352 388.1 352 416z"/></svg><svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:orange;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M224 320c0 17.69 14.33 32 32 32h64c17.67 0 32-14.31 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32h-64C238.3 288 224 302.3 224 320zM267.6 256H352c17.67 0 32-14.31 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32h-80v40C272 240.5 270.3 248.5 267.6 256zM272 160H480c17.67 0 32-14.31 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32h-208.8C271.5 98.66 272 101.3 272 104V160zM320 416c0-17.69-14.33-32-32-32H224c-17.67 0-32 14.31-32 32s14.33 32 32 32h64C305.7 448 320 433.7 320 416zM202.1 355.8C196 345.6 192 333.3 192 320c0-5.766 1.08-11.24 2.51-16.55C157.4 300.6 128 269.9 128 232V159.1C128 151.2 135.2 144 143.1 144S160 151.2 159.1 159.1l0 69.72C159.1 245.2 171.3 271.1 200 271.1C222.1 271.1 240 254.1 240 232v-128C240 81.91 222.1 64 200 64H136.6C103.5 64 72.03 80 52.47 106.8L26.02 143.2C9.107 166.5 0 194.5 0 223.3V312C0 387.1 60.89 448 136 448h32.88C163.4 438.6 160 427.7 160 416C160 388.1 178 364.6 202.1 355.8z"/></svg> political .pink[deglobalization]. --- # What kind of .pink[*homogeneization*]? (.green[V-dem] data) -- <!-- --> --- class: inverse, middle background-color: black background-image: url(https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Democracy_Around_the_World_2022_Asia.jpg) background-position: right background-size: contain # Status of democracy <br> <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M224 320c0 17.69 14.33 32 32 32h64c17.67 0 32-14.31 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32h-64C238.3 288 224 302.3 224 320zM267.6 256H352c17.67 0 32-14.31 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32h-80v40C272 240.5 270.3 248.5 267.6 256zM272 160H480c17.67 0 32-14.31 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32h-208.8C271.5 98.66 272 101.3 272 104V160zM320 416c0-17.69-14.33-32-32-32H224c-17.67 0-32 14.31-32 32s14.33 32 32 32h64C305.7 448 320 433.7 320 416zM202.1 355.8C196 345.6 192 333.3 192 320c0-5.766 1.08-11.24 2.51-16.55C157.4 300.6 128 269.9 128 232V159.1C128 151.2 135.2 144 143.1 144S160 151.2 159.1 159.1l0 69.72C159.1 245.2 171.3 271.1 200 271.1C222.1 271.1 240 254.1 240 232v-128C240 81.91 222.1 64 200 64H136.6C103.5 64 72.03 80 52.47 106.8L26.02 143.2C9.107 166.5 0 194.5 0 223.3V312C0 387.1 60.89 448 136 448h32.88C163.4 438.6 160 427.7 160 416C160 388.1 178 364.6 202.1 355.8z"/></svg> .red[political globalization] -- ## - .Green[democratization] cases in Asia - .large[🇹🇼 Taiwan] - .large[🇰🇷 S. Korea] - .large[🇮🇩Indonesia] ## - .orange[autocratization] cases in Asia -- - .large[🇵🇭 the Philippines (populism)] - .large[🇰🇭 Cambodia (backsliding)] --- class: inverse, middle, center background-color: black background-image: url(https://t4.ftcdn.net/jpg/01/26/47/67/360_F_126476734_u4kON6kiQHn8TBv0TStYsqV9HDgNQUFA.jpg) background-size: 120% # .Large[.yellow[What does political globalization (democratization) in Asia look like?]] -- # .bluey[How textbook explanations don't work in Asia.] --- # Textbook #1: democratization happens with .red[economic development] (GDP per capita) -- .center[ <img src="images/gdp400.png" width="60%" /> ] --- # Textbook #2: democratization happens with increasing .red[income inequality] (Gini index) -- .center[ <img src="images/gini400.png" width="60%" /> ] --- class: inverse, left background-image: url(https://www.wired.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/855.gif) background-size: cover # .Large[Then how <br> do we explain <br> the .yellow[Asian] cases?] --- class: inverse .pull-left[ # Hint: most democratization episodes are .yellow[not] revolutions. .center[ <img src="https://c.tenor.com/tOVFV6hNMsIAAAAM/lenin-vladimir-lenin.gif" width="120%" /> ] ] -- .pull-right[ # They are instead the stories of .red[elite concessions]. .center[ <img src="https://c.tenor.com/gwN3ilPlMaIAAAAC/nick-offerman-ron-swanson.gif" width="90%" /> ] ] --- class: inverse background-color: #6b5b95 # So when do dictators concede? (Slater & Wong 2003) -- ### - Asian Developmental States: Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia -- .center[ <img src="images/Slater_Wang_2013.jpg" width="60%" /> ] --- # The tales of going backward: the Philippines & Cambodia <!-- --> --- class: inverse, top, right background-image: url(https://arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/7DWQUYSNFVC25DQAA74RFMA44U.jpg) background-size: cover -- # The Philippines: <br> A case of .red[populist] backsliding -- ### - shock to the political .orange[connectedness] -- ### - regional (international) cooperation harder -- ### - US-Phil; Phil-China; ASEAN --- # .red[Populism]: --- # .red[Populism]: .Small[leaders .orange[un]constrained in the name of .pink['the people']] -- <br> .center[  ] --- # The Philippines: A breeding ground for populism <br>(Arugay & Slater 2019) <br> <br> .center[ <img src="https://github.com/textvulture/textvulture.github.io/blob/master/images/Phil_timeline.jpg?raw=true" width="120%" /> ] --- background-color: black background-image: url(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iPpGrFZB6NGY/v0/-1x-1.png) background-size: contain --- class: inverse, middle background-image: url(https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/i/msnbc/Components/Photos/060224/060224_phillippines_bcol_1p.jpg) background-position: right background-size: contain background-color: black ## Why so .Green[extremely] & .pink[persistently] popular? -- # Can we really call it a .yellow[problem]? -- # Or, is he actually .Blue[that] popular? --- # Kasuya & Miwa (2023): Social .pink[Desirability] Bias ## The experiment -- .content-box-blue[ ### Of the politicians on this list, <br>.red[how many] do you approve of in terms of performance of duties? ] -- .content-box-red[ .large[*for .green[control ]group*] - MANUEL QUEZON - FERDINAND MARCOS - CORAZON “CORY” AQUINO ] --- # Kasuya & Miwa (2023): Social .pink[Desirability] Bias ## The experiment .content-box-blue[ ### Of the politicians on this list, <br>.red[how many] do you approve of in terms of performance of duties? ] .content-box-red[ .large[*for .bluey[treatment] group*] - MANUEL QUEZON - FERDINAND MARCOS - CORAZON “CORY” AQUINO - .blue[RODRIGO “DIGONG” DUTERTE] ] -- ### And then asked a .orange[direct] approval rating question on Duterte. --- # Kasuya & Miwa (2023): Social .pink[Desirability] Bias -- - .large[ [treatment] - [control] = [direct question]: no bias ] - .large[ [treatment] - [control] <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 384 512" style="height:1em;width:0.75em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:red;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M351.1 448c-4.797 0-9.688-1.094-14.28-3.375l-320-160C6.844 279.2 0 268.1 0 256c0-12.13 6.844-23.18 17.69-28.62l320-160c15.88-7.875 35.05-1.5 42.94 14.31c7.906 15.81 1.5 35.03-14.31 42.94L103.5 256l262.8 131.4c15.81 7.906 22.22 27.12 14.31 42.94C375 441.5 363.7 448 351.1 448z"/></svg> [direct question]: bias (fearing the regime) ] -- <img src="https://github.com/textvulture/textvulture.github.io/blob/master/images/Kasuya2023_2.JPG?raw=true" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: inverse, center background-size: contain background-image: url(https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/8b2a54a026fd4dfab36ca9dcc2a25da3?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&cropH=2658&cropW=4726&xPos=0&yPos=493&width=862&height=485) # .huge[**After populism?**] --- class: inverse, center, middle background-color: black # .huge[Backsliding in Cambodia] --- background-image: url(https://www.democratic-erosion.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/HUN-SEN.jpg) background-size: contain --- class: inverse background-color: #6b5b95 # Cambodian Backsliding and China (Loughlin 2021) -- ## A reaction to a political 'crisis': CNRP's rise (2012) and fall (2017) -- - .Large[from .yellow[competitive] to .red[hegemonic] authoritarianism] - .Large[result: single-party election in 2018 (Cambodian People's Party)] -- ## - "authoritarian linkage" -- - .Large[elite cooperation: investment from China] - .Large[.orange[business tycoons]; .orange[military]].Large[: -> against Western pressure] - .Large[Chinese discourse] -> .Large[justification for repression] - .Large['.yellow[non-interference]' & '.yellow[right to develop]'] - .Large[CNRP a 'Trojan Horse' of US] --- class: inverse, top, left background-image: url(https://media1.giphy.com/media/4lYRJD6tcidlC/200.gif) background-size: contain # .yellow[Asian political globalization runs *both* ways.] -- # Some political globalization with some .pink[de]-globalization -- ## .bluey[But in a long-run], <br>Asian democracy (& political globalization) has come a long way despite some notable resistance.