Guest Lecture

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# .large[Inside a Quantitative Researcher’s <br> Workflow: .yellow[A Sneak Peek]] <br><br>
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## .right[Byunghwan Ben Son <br> .tiny[(Associate Professor, GLOA, GMU)]]

### .right[GLOA 491 (MK) Guest Lecture]

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# Before we start:

### The slides are completely .pink[online] and you can easily access it.

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# An .pink[example] to work with:

![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/textvulture/textvulture.github.io/refs/heads/master/images/bkv_screen.png){width="80%"}

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<br><br>
## But This won't be a research presentation.

- .Large[You've already read the paper <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 448 512" style="height:1em;width:0.88em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:orange;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M364.2 83.8c-24.4-24.4-64-24.4-88.4 0l-184 184c-42.1 42.1-42.1 110.3 0 152.4s110.3 42.1 152.4 0l152-152c10.9-10.9 28.7-10.9 39.6 0s10.9 28.7 0 39.6l-152 152c-64 64-167.6 64-231.6 0s-64-167.6 0-231.6l184-184c46.3-46.3 121.3-46.3 167.6 0s46.3 121.3 0 167.6l-176 176c-28.6 28.6-75 28.6-103.6 0s-28.6-75 0-103.6l144-144c10.9-10.9 28.7-10.9 39.6 0s10.9 28.7 0 39.6l-144 144c-6.7 6.7-6.7 17.7 0 24.4s17.7 6.7 24.4 0l176-176c24.4-24.4 24.4-64 0-88.4z"/></svg> .]

## Instead, we will take a look at how a paper like that is .yellow[conceived] and then .bluey[produced] (hence the title).

- .Large[If you're interested in how this project was .pink[presented] in a typical research talk, here's the link to the slides: (Presented at MPSA 2021)]
  
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# Let's start with some method talks.

# I am sure you must've <br> talked about this <br> .red[a lot] already in this class.

# But we need to first talk about <br> .pink[where this research belongs.]

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# Okay, we now know what kind of .yellow[method] we are talking about.

# Now let's get on to the .Blue[project]:

### <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 448 512" style="height:1em;width:0.88em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:red;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M96 0C43 0 0 43 0 96V416c0 53 43 96 96 96H384h32c17.7 0 32-14.3 32-32s-14.3-32-32-32V384c17.7 0 32-14.3 32-32V32c0-17.7-14.3-32-32-32H384 96zm0 384H352v64H96c-17.7 0-32-14.3-32-32s14.3-32 32-32zm32-240c0-8.8 7.2-16 16-16H336c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16s-7.2 16-16 16H144c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16zm16 48H336c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16s-7.2 16-16 16H144c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16s7.2-16 16-16z"/></svg> "Consequences of Democratic Backsliding on Popular Culture: Evidence from Blacklist in South Korea" *Democratization*, Forthcoming.

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# <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 448 512" style="height:1em;width:0.88em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:orange;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M96 0C43 0 0 43 0 96V416c0 53 43 96 96 96H384h32c17.7 0 32-14.3 32-32s-14.3-32-32-32V384c17.7 0 32-14.3 32-32V32c0-17.7-14.3-32-32-32H384 96zm0 384H352v64H96c-17.7 0-32-14.3-32-32s14.3-32 32-32zm32-240c0-8.8 7.2-16 16-16H336c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16s-7.2 16-16 16H144c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16zm16 48H336c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16s-7.2 16-16 16H144c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16s7.2-16 16-16z"/></svg> Blacklists, literally

## - names of individuals and groups

## - 'anti-government' or 'lefty' <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 448 512" style="height:1em;width:0.88em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:red;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M48 24C48 10.7 37.3 0 24 0S0 10.7 0 24V64 350.5 400v88c0 13.3 10.7 24 24 24s24-10.7 24-24V388l80.3-20.1c41.1-10.3 84.6-5.5 122.5 13.4c44.2 22.1 95.5 24.8 141.7 7.4l34.7-13c12.5-4.7 20.8-16.6 20.8-30V66.1c0-23-24.2-38-44.8-27.7l-9.6 4.8c-46.3 23.2-100.8 23.2-147.1 0c-35.1-17.6-75.4-22-113.5-12.5L48 52V24zm0 77.5l96.6-24.2c27-6.7 55.5-3.6 80.4 8.8c54.9 27.4 118.7 29.7 175 6.8V334.7l-24.4 9.1c-33.7 12.6-71.2 10.7-103.4-5.4c-48.2-24.1-103.3-30.1-155.6-17.1L48 338.5v-237z"/></svg>

## - mostly using existing lists <br> (open letter signatories)

## - exclusion and disadvantage

## - Govt: NIS, Blue House, MHST

## - discrete operation

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# How to Get on the List

.pull-left[
<table class="table table table-striped" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> List </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> Based </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> Pres </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> Reasons </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 2008 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Lee </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> critical of the govert; 'left-leaning' -- only 60 movie workers (but more, unidentified) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 2012 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Park </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> supporting the opposition presidential leader </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 3 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 2014 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Park </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> participants of the open letter regarding the Sewol Ferry sinking; supporting the opposition candidate for Seoul Mayoral election </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 2015 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Park </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> participants of the open letter criticising government handling of the Sewol Ferry sinking </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td style = 'padding: 0; border:0;' colspan='100%'><sup>*</sup>  'based' is the year in which the event that the list is based on occurred.</td>
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# "*Why have you not .red[sanctioned] <br> these [anti-government] <br> movie producers yet?*" <br><br>

## **Kim Ki-choon**, <br> Park Geun-hye's Chief Secretary, <br> after watching *The Attorney* <br> to **Yoo Jin-ryong**, <br> Minister of Culture, Sports and Tourism.

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# **Motivation** .pink[.small[.tiny[(why chose the particular method)]]]

- This is upsetting <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:red;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M256 48a208 208 0 1 1 0 416 208 208 0 1 1 0-416zm0 464A256 256 0 1 0 256 0a256 256 0 1 0 0 512zm72.4-118.5c9.7-9 10.2-24.2 1.2-33.9C315.3 344.3 290.6 328 256 328s-59.3 16.3-73.5 31.6c-9 9.7-8.5 24.9 1.2 33.9s24.9 8.5 33.9-1.2c7.4-7.9 20-16.4 38.5-16.4s31.1 8.5 38.5 16.4c9 9.7 24.2 10.2 33.9 1.2zM176.4 272c17.7 0 32-14.3 32-32c0-1.5-.1-3-.3-4.4l10.9 3.6c8.4 2.8 17.4-1.7 20.2-10.1s-1.7-17.4-10.1-20.2l-96-32c-8.4-2.8-17.4 1.7-20.2 10.1s1.7 17.4 10.1 20.2l30.7 10.2c-5.8 5.8-9.3 13.8-9.3 22.6c0 17.7 14.3 32 32 32zm192-32c0-8.9-3.6-17-9.5-22.8l30.2-10.1c8.4-2.8 12.9-11.9 10.1-20.2s-11.9-12.9-20.2-10.1l-96 32c-8.4 2.8-12.9 11.9-10.1 20.2s11.9 12.9 20.2 10.1l11.7-3.9c-.2 1.5-.3 3.1-.3 4.7c0 17.7 14.3 32 32 32s32-14.3 32-32z"/></svg>.

- But .pink[what] exactly am I upset about?
  
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- Suppression of freedom of speech? Yes, but more.

- .green[personal] to me: 
      - *sleazy people ruining cool people's lives.* <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:orange;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M464 256A208 208 0 1 0 48 256a208 208 0 1 0 416 0zM0 256a256 256 0 1 1 512 0A256 256 0 1 1 0 256zm176.5 64.3C196.1 302.1 223.8 288 256 288s59.9 14.1 79.5 32.3C354.5 338.1 368 362 368 384c0 5.4-2.7 10.4-7.2 13.4s-10.2 3.4-15.2 1.3l-17.2-7.5c-22.8-10-47.5-15.1-72.4-15.1s-49.6 5.2-72.4 15.1l-17.2 7.5c-4.9 2.2-10.7 1.7-15.2-1.3s-7.2-8-7.2-13.4c0-22 13.5-45.9 32.5-63.7zm-43-173.6l89.9 47.9c10.7 5.7 10.7 21.1 0 26.8l-89.9 47.9c-7.9 4.2-17.5-1.5-17.5-10.5c0-2.8 1-5.5 2.8-7.6l36-43.2-36-43.2c-1.8-2.1-2.8-4.8-2.8-7.6c0-9 9.6-14.7 17.5-10.5zM396 157.1c0 2.8-1 5.5-2.8 7.6l-36 43.2 36 43.2c1.8 2.1 2.8 4.8 2.8 7.6c0 9-9.6 14.7-17.5 10.5l-89.9-47.9c-10.7-5.7-10.7-21.1 0-26.8l89.9-47.9c7.9-4.2 17.5 1.5 17.5 10.5z"/></svg>
      
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- Okay, but how can I demonstrate this empirically?
  
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- Interviews? Fieldwork?
    
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- **Only** if the victims were really aware of things.

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# Causal Inference Approach
]

### Again, I want to argue: *sleazy people ruining cool people's lives.*

- 'sleazy people' getting power: **cause**
 - 'lives ruined': **effect**

### The argument has a good theoretical framework to work with: .orange[democratic backsliding]
  - will come back to this later

## .content-box-green[The Hypotheses .tiny[(translation of the argument into a relationship between the .red[observables])]]

### `$H_1$`. Being blacklisted .red[decreases] a movie worker's chances of securing a movie job.

### `$H_2$`. The negative career effect of Blacklist is larger for .red[non-actor] movie workers.

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